Sequence of Returns Risk

Sequence of returns risk involves the order in which investment returns occur and the impact of those returns on people who are near retirement, transitioning into retirement, or recently retired. In a nutshell, a bear market or period of market losses can have a severely negative impact on the income generating potential of a portfolio belonging to a person who is transitioning into retirement. The reason is that people who are transitioning into retirement will—in the near-term—need to begin withdrawing portfolio funds to produce income. As a result, the ability of the portfolio to “catch-up” during subsequent years is greatly diminished, and the person’s longevity risk will likely increase significantly. Hedging or downside protection of one’s financial assets is critical and can help mitigate sequence of returns risk. Assume, for example, that a given 10 year period of market returns: a) is highly volatile; b) begins with a 2 year period of very negative returns (e.g. -40%), and; c) results in an average return at the end of the 10 year period that is 6%. This 6% average return is not necessarily a problem for a person who bought and held during the entire 10 year period. However, it has catastrophic implications for the income generating potential of the person who was set to retire 3 years into the 10 year period. The sequence of the returns or the fact that the losses occurred early in the 10 year period is critical for the person transitioning into retirement.

Why Warren Buffett's Prescription Will Not Work for Retirees

In a Fortune article titled “Why Stocks Beat Gold and Bonds,” Warren Buffett provides a glimpse of his upcoming shareholder letter.

While Buffett’s advice is perfect for investors who have a long-term perspective, anyone near or in retirement may want to think twice about acting on the prescription.

The core of Buffett’s advice is as follows:

Retirement Planning Options

What options are available to a soon-to-be retired household that is financially constrained?  What levers can be pulled if desired retirement spending is not realistic in light of retirement savings?

The financial profile we developed in related articles offers a case study of a financially constrained household.

Guaranteed Income Solutions Take Center Stage

Putnam Investments President and CEO Robert Reynolds spoke on the need to address America’s lifetime income challenge at the recent Retirement Income Industry Association (RIIA) conference in Chicago.

While Reynolds has spent most of his career in leadership positions in the investment management industry, his comments and recent initiatives at Putnam focus on what Reynolds believes should be a golden age for innovation in the area of guaranteed income solutions.  

What Retirees Should Make of the Low Volatility, No-Fear Market

The fear index seems to be signaling that all is well.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (“VIX”) represents the short-term (30 days) implied volatility of a S&P 500 option.  The VIX—also known as the fear index—has returned to pre-financial crisis levels.

The last time the VIX was at this level was last April—right before the index surged as a result of the flash crash and sovereign debt rumblings.  Before that, comparably low levels date back to pre-financial crisis 2007.

Another Perspective on Sequence of Returns through Low Volatility Investing

Financial advisors and retirees should be aware of the profound impact that a low volatility portfolio can have on investment performance and, consequently, retirement spending sustainability.

Sequence of returns discussions typically focus on the downside or risk involved with the path of investment returns. 

Low or No Surprises Supports the Case for Annuities in Retirement

In a basic sense, information theory measures the level of surprise in a message.

A highly informative message will come as a complete surprise and tell you something about which you had no previous knowledge.

Sounds pretty good, right—of what use is it to be told what you already know?  Well, there are actually cases where information is not so welcome.

Glenn Daily on Buying Annuities and Why it Might Make Sense to Wait

Glenn Daily is one of the top financial advisors in the country. 

Specializing in life insurance and annuities, Glenn is widely recognized for his deep technical expertise and high level of objectivity as his services are strictly on a fee-only basis.

The annuity buying decision is complex and can be affected by commission-based financial incentives. Glenn’s writing, interviews and services are a great way to cut through some of the clutter.

Ten Questions to Ask When a Financial Advisor Says: "You Know I'm Not a Big Fan of Annuities"

Many financial advisors seem conditioned to wear annuity criticism as a sort of badge of honor. 

As the past couple of years have so painfully revealed, however, this conventional wisdom rests on shaky ground.

What types of questions might a client present to an advisor who appears to have a reflexive inclination to dismiss most or all forms of annuities?  Consider the following:

1.  How are my assets hedged against longevity risk?  In other words, how am I protected from outliving my money?

Sequence of Returns Risk Report

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Key Financial Planning Concepts

The following are a few key concepts to think about, look for, or listen to when developing a financial plan:

Information Gathering: This is one of the first steps in the financial planning process.  Your financial advisor should gather quite a bit of information about you and your current financial status.

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