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Why Warren Buffett’s Prescription Will Not Work for Retirees

In a Fortune article titled “Why Stocks Beat Gold and Bonds,” Warren Buffett provides a glimpse of his upcoming shareholder letter.

While Buffett’s advice is perfect for investors who have a long-term perspective, anyone near or in retirement may want to think twice about acting on the prescription.

The core of Buffett’s advice is as follows:

A Benchmark for Lifetime Income

The world is filled with investing indexes and benchmarks, and all professional investment managers measure their results relative to some type of performance standard such as the S&P 500.

On the retirement income front, though, similar gauges of performance are virtually non-existent.  The lack of a baseline performance measure is a problem for the industry because there is no established basis for comparison of asset decumulation strategies.

SOA Offers Consumer-Oriented Content for Retirement Decisions

The Society of Actuaries (SOA) just published a series of short whitepapers or “briefs” that focus on some of the major decisions that are encountered by retirees.

This is a great resource for consumers who are seeking objective content produced by experts.

The Society has clearly made efforts to create content that is accessible to a non professional audience.  The briefs are clear, short and focus on consumer-relevant topics such as “when should I retire.”

There are 11 briefs, and the topics include:

Treasury Department Focuses on Longevity Risk with Retirement Income Guidance

The Treasury Department just released a proposed set of regulations that could have a meaningful impact on the retirement income market in the U.S.

The Treasury’s guidance package builds on feedback received in response to the request for comments issued by the Labor and Treasury Departments last fall.

The proposed regulations appear to be squarely focused on longevity risk.  The basis for this concern—particularly as it pertains to the middle class—is summarized in the following chart:

Why Retirees Should Listen Closely to Bill Gross

As the manager of the largest bond fund in the world and a founder of PIMCO, Bill Gross is a leading authority on all things related to yield.

Since retirement finances are fundamentally about generating income from accumulated assets, retirees should care greatly about any comments and insights from Gross.  This is especially true since the world is starved for yield.

Gross regularly shares his insights through commentary on the PIMCO website.

Q&A with Zvi Bodie and Rachelle Taqqu about Risk Less and Prosper’s Goal-Driven Approach to Investing

Is there a sense of “swimming upstream” when trying to propagate goal-based investing--as described in your new book Risk Less and Prosper--among existing financial advisors? Conventional practices and economic incentives are so heavily skewed towards modern portfolio theory and growing assets under management. 

Why is the Growth in Health Spending Considered a Problem?

Consumer discretionary spending is the major driver of the U.S. economy as household purchases make-up about 71 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).

Without growth in consumer spending, the economy would most likely go nowhere.

Since economic growth is generally considered a good thing, it stands to reason that we should be looking for things that contribute to consumer spending.

Taiwan’s Asset Deflation Linked to Demographics

Much has been written about the link between Japan’s aging society and the asset deflation that the country has experienced over the past 22 years. 

There is a disconcerting correlation between the progression of Japan’s aging society and the relentless bout of deflation that began after the Nikkei peaked in 1989.

A similar and equally distressing story exists in Taiwan. 

Pimco’s Gross Describes a New Age of Risk

Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco) founder and co-chief investment officer Bill Gross offered a revised view of the global investing landscape in a letter published on the company’s website. 

As the manager of the Pimco Total Return Fund, Gross’s 2011 investment decisions were driven in part by the “new normal” thesis. 

The new normal view suggests that investors should seek emerging market debt because developed countries will experience a prolonged period of sluggish growth, high unemployment and inflation

A Clear Line in the Canadian Annuity Market

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty intends to propose legislation that bans banks from selling products that are similar to annuities.

Canadian law already prevents banks from selling annuity products.

Canadian finance officials are apparently concerned that the lines between annuity and banking products are increasingly blurred.

Bank products that are represented as lifetime cash flow vehicles presumably fall under this area of concern.

Sun Life yet another Casualty of Equity Market Volatility

Canadian insurer Sun Life recently announced that it will exit the variable annuity and individual life insurance markets in the United States.

Continued equity market volatility has resulted in a variable annuity business that is plagued with uncertainty and higher costs.

Insurers such as Sun Life offer guarantees that are linked to the performance of underlying equity portfolios.  These guarantees are a liability for the insurance company, and equity market volatility contributes to the cost of these liabilities.

New China Life Pursuing IPO Despite Challenging Market

New China Life is seeking to raise $2.3 billion in an initial public offering that would list the company on exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

New China Life is seeking the capital in market conditions that have been challenging for many of its peers.

China Life Insurance Company and Ping An Insurance have both seen their stock prices decline over 30 percent this year.  China Pacific Insurance Group has dropped more than 20 percent this year.

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