Sequence of Returns Risk

Sequence of returns risk involves the order in which investment returns occur and the impact of those returns on people who are near retirement, transitioning into retirement, or recently retired. In a nutshell, a bear market or period of market losses can have a severely negative impact on the income generating potential of a portfolio belonging to a person who is transitioning into retirement. The reason is that people who are transitioning into retirement will—in the near-term—need to begin withdrawing portfolio funds to produce income. As a result, the ability of the portfolio to “catch-up” during subsequent years is greatly diminished, and the person’s longevity risk will likely increase significantly. Hedging or downside protection of one’s financial assets is critical and can help mitigate sequence of returns risk. Assume, for example, that a given 10 year period of market returns: a) is highly volatile; b) begins with a 2 year period of very negative returns (e.g. -40%), and; c) results in an average return at the end of the 10 year period that is 6%. This 6% average return is not necessarily a problem for a person who bought and held during the entire 10 year period. However, it has catastrophic implications for the income generating potential of the person who was set to retire 3 years into the 10 year period. The sequence of the returns or the fact that the losses occurred early in the 10 year period is critical for the person transitioning into retirement.

How to Think About Longevity Insurance

A recent article discusses whether it makes sense to consider buying a longevity annuity.

The author addresses...

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Consider Annuity Ladders to Meet Retirement Objectives

An annuity ladder basically involves spreading annuity purchases over time. For example, instead of taking $100,000 to purchase an immediate annuity today, a person might purchase five different $20,000 annuities over a seven year period. This approach has a number of advantages: The approach helps avoid the risk of purchasing an annuity at a less then optimal time--for example when interest rates are very low. In this sense, it is somewhat similar to dollar cost averaging when investing . The...

Target Date Funds Under Increasing Scrutiny

Target date funds are receiving attention from the SEC, the DOL and Congress. The increased scrutiny is a result of the way that target date funds have performed during the market meltdown over the past year. As reported recently , in theory target date funds are supposed to provide a smooth and somewhat automated transition from more risky assets to less risky assets as people approach retirement. One of the problems is that the actual asset allocations for people approaching retirement varies...
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Not All Target Date Funds are Created Equal

Conservative is in the eye of the beholder when it comes to target date funds. Very generally, target date funds are mutual fund offerings that automatically shift asset allocations to a more conservative profile as the fund owner approaches retirement age. In other words, a "2015" fund may be purchased by someone intending to retire on or around 2015. This 2015 fund will likely move towards a higher bond and lower equity allocation as 2015 approaches. It turns out that target date funds can be...

Financial Crisis Will be Seen Fundamentally as a Crisis for Retirees and Near Retirees

Professor James Galbraith provided a keynote address at a recent industry conference sponsored by NAVA—the Association for Insured Retirement Solutions. 

Professor Galbraith comes from the Economics department at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin.  A Keynesian and an author most recently of The Predator State, Professor Galbraith has been a consistently strong and vocal advocate of government stimulus and intervention in response to the financial crisis.

Professor Galbraith’s basic message is that...

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