Financial Crisis

Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America reported strong revenue growth for the third quarter of 2010. Fixed indexed annuity sales increased 36 percent and totaled $1.9 billion. Variable annuity sales quadrupled to $800 million. Allianz attributes the revenue growth to more risk averse consumers in the wake of the financial crisis.

It is natural and tempting to assume that the capital market losses that occurred during the recent financial crisis represent a statistical outlier, a perfect storm, a rare, once in a century event—a black swan. This is not at all the case. An unsettling and eye-opening table in the current issue of the Financial Analysts Journal is reproduced below. The data, provided as part of a guest editorial authored by Laurence B. Siegel, clearly show that large negative returns such as those...

The consumer price index has fallen for two consecutive months: 0.2 percent in May and 0.1 percent in June. The unemployment rate in the United States remains at a persistent 9.5 percent, and in July the U.S. shed 131,000 jobs. Not exactly the type of news that supports a strong recovery or growth story. As discussed in a recent Wall Street Journal article , some large and very prominent investors are conditioning their investors and structuring their portfolios for deflation. PIMCO's Bill...

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal discusses the damage that the financial crisis has rendered to the theoretical foundations of modern finance. In particular, modern portfolio theory has come under heavy scrutiny over the past couple of years as a result of its non-relevance as a risk management tool during the financial crisis. This is a highly recommended article that effectively contrasts modern portfolio theory and alternative foundations such as asset liability management and...